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Jul. 21st, 2013 12:17 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
watertankThe confusion among press analysts about the outcome of the Navalny court case and the hidden causes behind it show how difficult it is to predict political events in Russia rationally. One simply cannot extract a meaningful signal from the noise; therefore, the predictive value of a rational analysis based on available data falls below zero (it takes an effort to produce 0-value utility).
As a result, existential decisions have to dominate. That is, acting and considering the results of the action is more informative than considering the possible consequences of the action prior to it. A rational agent has to act opportunistically, relying on faith rather than formulae. This is the essence of Mr.Navalny's election strategy: learning by doing.
Unfortunately for him, a large portion of the Russian society abhors acting on faith. They still swear by the GULAG commandments famously expressed by Solzhenitsyn, "Thou shalt not trust, nor fear, nor ask [for help]" (не верь, не бойся, не проси). Many would rather see him go to jail on false legal charges than venture out of their own protective cynical shells.
As a result, existential decisions have to dominate. That is, acting and considering the results of the action is more informative than considering the possible consequences of the action prior to it. A rational agent has to act opportunistically, relying on faith rather than formulae. This is the essence of Mr.Navalny's election strategy: learning by doing.
Unfortunately for him, a large portion of the Russian society abhors acting on faith. They still swear by the GULAG commandments famously expressed by Solzhenitsyn, "Thou shalt not trust, nor fear, nor ask [for help]" (не верь, не бойся, не проси). Many would rather see him go to jail on false legal charges than venture out of their own protective cynical shells.
