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Foxes and hedgehogs
Jul. 22nd, 2008 04:09 pm...it gets to the core answer as to why the concept of good political judgment is so profoundly controversial or like my former colleague, the late Amos Tversky, said, what is it about politics that makes people so dumb?Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs. video/talk by Philip Tetlock.
http://fora.tv/2007/01/26/Why_Foxes_Are_Better_Forecasters_Than_Hedgehogs
(no subject)
Jul. 14th, 2008 10:56 am"The future is now. It's just distributed unevenly."
Пока Линор Горалик![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
snorapp придумывает темы докладов на предстоящей конференции, Neal Stephenson ( автор Snowcrash, Cryptonomicon и других) уже сделал один из них.
video: http://fora.tv/2008/05/08/Neal_Stephenson_Science_Fiction_as_a_Literary_Genre
Пока Линор Горалик
snorapp придумывает темы докладов на предстоящей конференции, Neal Stephenson ( автор Snowcrash, Cryptonomicon и других) уже сделал один из них.video: http://fora.tv/2008/05/08/Neal_Stephenson_Science_Fiction_as_a_Literary_Genre
(no subject)
Jul. 11th, 2008 07:11 pmEvolution-related question: Why procrastinators do not die out?
need to watch/listen to this program again. maybe it has the key to an answer.
http://fora.tv/2006/05/12/Chris_Anderson_with_Will_Hearst
Will they die out? Has anything changed in the environment that is going to shift the "population" dynamics?
need to watch/listen to this program again. maybe it has the key to an answer.
http://fora.tv/2006/05/12/Chris_Anderson_with_Will_Hearst
Will they die out? Has anything changed in the environment that is going to shift the "population" dynamics?
(no subject)
Jul. 9th, 2008 12:04 amRoger Kennedy
The Political History of North America from 25,000 BC to 12,000 AD
Friday, February 25th 02005
video http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3280774057711739155
audio http://longnow.chubbo.net/salt-feb02005-kennedy/salt-feb02005-kennedy.mp3
/// need to write a short summary
note about the market - most things of value are not related to the market.
The Political History of North America from 25,000 BC to 12,000 AD
Friday, February 25th 02005
video http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3280774057711739155
audio http://longnow.chubbo.net/salt-feb02005-kennedy/salt-feb02005-kennedy.mp3
/// need to write a short summary
note about the market - most things of value are not related to the market.
Indicators of Good Judgement in Politics
Jul. 1st, 2008 04:06 pmPhilip Tetlock, USB
This chapter summarizes some research results on expert political judgment that bear on debates among experimental psychologists over alleged departures from rationality in human judgment.
...well-known errors or biases:
(1) Overconfidence. [ a large gap b/w subjective probabilities and outcome ].
(2) Cognitive conservatism. [ experts are too slow to update their beliefs ].
(3) Certainty of hindsight. [ experts deny mistakes altogether ].
(4) Theory-driven standards of evidence and proof. [ experts impose higher standards of evidence and proof on dissonant claims than they do on consonant ones].
(5) Systematic evidence of incoherence in sbjective probability judgments. [ political observers are highly susceptible to the subadditivity effects. ... judge the likelihood of the whole to be less, sometimes far less, the the sum of its parts.
Why Foxes are better forecasters than Hedgehogs ( video, english).
P.E. Tetlock's talk at Long Now
"the more mediagenic the forecaster, the less likely his/her forecast is going to happen".
This chapter summarizes some research results on expert political judgment that bear on debates among experimental psychologists over alleged departures from rationality in human judgment.
...well-known errors or biases:
(1) Overconfidence. [ a large gap b/w subjective probabilities and outcome ].
(2) Cognitive conservatism. [ experts are too slow to update their beliefs ].
(3) Certainty of hindsight. [ experts deny mistakes altogether ].
(4) Theory-driven standards of evidence and proof. [ experts impose higher standards of evidence and proof on dissonant claims than they do on consonant ones].
(5) Systematic evidence of incoherence in sbjective probability judgments. [ political observers are highly susceptible to the subadditivity effects. ... judge the likelihood of the whole to be less, sometimes far less, the the sum of its parts.
Why Foxes are better forecasters than Hedgehogs ( video, english).
P.E. Tetlock's talk at Long Now
"the more mediagenic the forecaster, the less likely his/her forecast is going to happen".
Достоевский жив!
May. 21st, 2008 12:07 pmЭто же целая наука - подготовка персонала, подготовка под задачи продаж и т.д. Если спецы скажут, что иначе нельзя, но я в принципе могу в это поверить. В целом логика понятна - работать с клиентом это значит под него прогибаться. Значит надо научиться прогибаться. А как? Обрести навык самоунижения.
Дело в том, что люди, которые соглашаются, чтобы с ними делали то, что с ними делают в тренинге, мне лично неприятны в большей степени, чем люди, которые это с ними делают.
http://ivanov-petrov.livejournal.com/926804.html?thread=40839252#t40839252
Клинически чистые обоснования собственной жестокости в экспериментах Милграма! (описание на русском;
a short article in English).
Сила конформизма
langobard'a настолько велика, что он с легкостью выдерживает натиск комментаторов. У него не возникает сомнений квалификации тренеров, построивших обучение на игре в Раба:По приказу господина - тоже из группы, они должны были с улыбкой ползать по полу, изображать, собирать разбросанные господином карандаши и маркеры, подавать одежду, завязывать шнурки. Тренер проверял не только раба, но и господина. Если ты придумываешь недостаточно унизительные задания, или хоть раз скажешь "пожалуйста" или "спасибо" - ты проиграл и с позором изгоняешься.
Сама игра настолько похожа на знаменитый The Stanford Prison Experiment, что мурашки по коже!
( Read more... )
racism without racists
May. 17th, 2008 11:59 pmtomorrow at breakfast i will be watching this video. Richard Thompson Ford, professor of law at Stanford University, talks about his book, The Race Card: How Bluffing About Bias Makes Race Relations Worse.
UPD: The talk is ok. Nothing really new. The Logic of Life, by Tim Hartford covers the topic much better ( chapters 5 and 6).
(no subject)
Oct. 31st, 2007 10:05 amAre you human?
"One of the most interesting questions that people are going to be dealing with on a dayly basis."
( Judith Donath of MIT talks about Signals, Truth & Design ( google video )... )
(no subject)
Oct. 1st, 2007 02:27 pm"Carnegie Mellon Professor Randy Pausch, who is dying from pancreatic cancer, gave his last lecture at the university Sept. 18, 2007, before ... all » a packed McConomy Auditorium. In his moving talk, "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams," Pausch talked about his lessons learned and gave advice to students on how to achieve their own career and personal goals."
Randy Pausch is a well known researcher in the domain of Virtual Worlds and User Experience.
video: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=362421849901825950&hl=en
transcript: http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~pausch/Randy/pauschlastlecturetranscript.pdf
Randy Pausch is a well known researcher in the domain of Virtual Worlds and User Experience.
video: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=362421849901825950&hl=en
transcript: http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~pausch/Randy/pauschlastlecturetranscript.pdf
