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To see a world in a grain of sand,
And a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand,
And eternity in an hour.

William Blake - Auguries of Innocence

chapter 4

Sep. 2nd, 2008 09:26 pm
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not worth solving
come in all shapes and sizes
because you can ( skills, channel, place of work, friends, etc )
market
ideas like food
competition: the 3,000 curve
killing ideas
somebody else's problem ( field) - scale / time
somebody else's future problems
asset not a liability
strong supply
transient vs persistent ( google's motto)
examples: gates,
problems vs puzzles
the fear factor
students 1,2, 5 problems max

black swan
foxes and hedgehogs
the best of both worlds
ford = a faster horse
tradeoffs ( ? )

future of the car ( need a list here)
switch priorities
city parking
congestion fee
health care
social security - education

key trends
shapewear

valuation
bet/invest/auction
four quadrants graph
sorted graph
long tail graph
cumulative

intuitive vs analytic
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variation in a section of the gene called RS3 334 was linked to how men bond with their partners. Men can have none, one or two copies of the RS3 334 section, and the higher the number of copies, the worse men scored on a measure of pair bonding.

Not only that, men with two copies of RS3 334 were more likely to be unmarried than men with one or none, and if they were married, they were twice as likely to have a marital crisis.

RS3 334's social effects extend beyond bonding in couples. Earlier this year, the same gene section was shown to affect signalling in people's amygdalas, linked to trust. Another study found that people with autism, which is characterised by unusual social behaviour, often have multiple copies of RS3 334.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14641-monogamy-gene-found-in-people.html


g, soon women will be able to identify the right guy by requesting a simple DNA test.

the team's next task is to test how a nasal vasopressin spray affects altruism and jealousy.

marriage therapy is going to have a whole new meaning.
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Сведущий человеk [livejournal.com profile] art_of_arts пишет о неизбежном конце нефтяной цивилизации. Это значит, что самое время заняться географией: Geog 130: Natural Resources and Population



(graph from A Concise History of World Population, by Massimo Livvi Bacci, 3rd ed, 2001.)
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написал весенний силлабус.

прочитал три хорошие/полезные книжки (нон-фикшн).

Information Rules, by Shapiro and Varian - about economics of information.

Bandwagon Effects in High Technology Industries, by Rohlfs - about the dynamics of technological change.

Wisdom, Intelligence, and Creativity Synthesized, by Sternberg - about modern experimental psychology approach to and theories of the subjs.
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Reading this week:

1. The Birth of Plenty, by William J. Bernstein.
2. The Winner-Take-All Society, by Robert H. Frank and Philip J. Cook.
3. How Breakthroughs Happen, by Andrew Hargadon.
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Understanding what makes experts so good in their domain of expertise is a
traditional field of psychology, which goes back at least to the monograph of Binet (1894, 1966) on the psychology of skilled mental calculators and chess players (see Bryan and Harter, 1899; Cleveland, 1907; or Djakow et al., 1927 for other early examples). Recently, cognitive science has produced a wealth of empirical data on expertise, and several theoretical explanations have been proposed. In particular, research on expert memory has been flourishing, gathering a large amount of data, which have sufficient power to test current theories. It is timely then to compare some of the main contenders.
Fernand Gobet. Expert memory: a comparison of four theories. Cognition 66 (1998) 115–152.
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The intellectual contact between psychology and poetry is scarce and, when it takes place, often
tends to be exploitative. If we happen to come across a poem that appears to support one of our favorite generalizations, we are tempted to cite it (not as evidence, of course, but more in the form of a testimonial). Or we might confer upon it the status of an epigraph in one of our forthcoming chapters (commonly, to the detriment of both the poem and the chapter). But when poetry disagrees with us we are apt to ignore the conflict
altogether.
Robert Zajonc. Feeling and Thinking. Preferences Need No Inferences. AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGIST • FEBRUARY 1980 • 151. Vol. 35, No. 2, 151-175.
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Situated between the private world of the family and the official world of the state, the public sphere was a forum in which previously isolated individuals could come together to exchange information, ideas and criticism. Whether communicating with each other at long range by subscribing to the same periodicals, or meeting face to face in a coffeehouse or in one of the new voluntary associations, such as a reading club or Masonic lodge, the public acquired a collective weight far greater than the sum of its individual members. It was from the public sphere that a new source of authority emerged to challenge the opinion-makers of the old regime: public opinion.
Blanning, Tim. The pursuit of Glory: Europe, 1648-1815. ISBN 978-0-670-06320-8
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Well, just got a message from my editor that her staff liked the concept and that they were ready to offer me a contract. If everything goes ok we'll have the book on sale for Christmas '08, 300 pages, $19.95. Is this cool or what?! Now I need to negotiate the rights, terms, and all other money/legal stuff. Awesome. Just awesome.

Работы, конечно, будет немеряно... Вот уж, действительно, охота пуще неволи. Все равно, ураааааааа!

Party on!

300 pages in 5 months means 60 pages a month, means 2 pages a day.
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just got a phone call from an acquisition editor at McGraw-Hill. they are interested in my book proposal! yeaaahhh! now i need to write a sample chapter over the weekend. hey, why not?

"еще шесть тысяч ведер, и золотой ключик у нас в кармане."
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Начал читать очередную книгу из цикла истории Европы: The Pursuit of Glory: Europe 1648-1815 и нашел ответ на вопрос почему так по-разному воспринимается распад Советского Союза в Европе и в России. Если жители Европы, особенно в ее центральной части, празднуют это событие как освобождение, то в России большинство граждан вместе с Президентом Путиным считают то же самое явление "одной из величайших трагедий 20-го века."

Почему так? Почему, один и тот же географический стимул вызывает противоположную реакцию у такого огромного количества людей?

Что бы понять, вернее, увидеть решение это загадки, требуется всего-навсего посмотреть на последовательность исторических карт Европы, начиная с 15-го века.

http://www.euratlas.com/history_europe/europe_map_1400.html
http://www.euratlas.com/history_europe/europe_map_1500.html
http://www.euratlas.com/history_europe/europe_map_1600.html
http://www.euratlas.com/history_europe/europe_map_1700.html
http://www.euratlas.com/history_europe/europe_map_1800.html
http://www.euratlas.com/history_europe/europe_map_1900.html
http://www.euratlas.com/history_europe/europe_map_2000.html

Если мы обратим внимание на восток континента, то обнаружим самую главную территориальную тенденцию: неуклонное поглощение соседних стран сначала Московским княжеством, потом Московским Царством, потом Российском Империей, и, наконец, Советским Союзом. Пик этого 500-летнего процесса приходится на 1945-й год, когда в результате 2-й мировой войны, Сталин расширяет свою зону влияния от Курильских островов до Берлина. Отсюда выходит, что десятки поколений в Центральной Европе выросли под постоянным военным и административным давлением с востока. Внешнему наблюдателю, например, с Марса, становится очевидно, что прекращение такого давления должно восприниматься как праздник.
С другой стороны, людям, привыкшим к постоянно расширяющемуся пространству своего государства, 90-е годы двадцатого века должны быпли показаться исторической аномалией. Тем более, что развал Советского Союза привел к одновременному сокращению территории страны и жесточайшему экономическому кризису всей системы. В массовом сознании между первым и вторым явлением установилась прочная психологическая связь: "чем меньше моя страна, тем хуже в ней живется".
По контрасту, в центрально-восточной Европе экономика довольно быстро стабилизировалась, а потом даже пошла на подъем. Сложилось восприятие событий, обратное российскому: "чем меньше Россия, тем лучше жизнь в моей стране." То есть, где-то по старой границе 18-го века прошел психологический разлом, на котором периодически извергаются вулканы: то в Таллинне, то в Киеве, то в Тбилиси.
Интересно, сколько времени потребуется на то, чтобы они потухли?
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While working on the book, I encountered an interesting problem: How do you show an example of a missed opportunity, i.e. something that didn't happen? You can't describe an actuality since the opportunity did not necessarily materialize in this particular instance. Its existence is just a prediction, a hypothetical that people tend to discount as a coulda woulda shoulda ( see, e.g. Kahneman, Tverskoy). So, we might want to rephrase the question: How do you give an example of a missed opportunity as if it were a certainty, not a probability?
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education and contests are all about ranking & selection. somebody has to win -> tasks are convoluted and technique-oriented, don't have to be useful in a wider context.
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1. Meaning of happiness seems to depend on individual's estimate of his/her life expectancy. It would be interesting to run a series of thought experiments on "what would happiness be if you were to live 10years; 20yrs; 30yrs;40;60;80;100;150;300;1000?" Check for qualitative changes on the timeline.

2. Happiness: A History by Darrin M. McMahon

3. High divorce rates. Why? If people were "designed by evolution" to live till about 30-40 with imminent danger of death from childbirth (women), violence (men), desease(children), then monogamy seems to be a cultural patch on a biological problem. Serial monogamy.

4. would be interesting to trace evolution of prayer.
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"Ruminations in negative state adversely affect one's problem solving abilities." ( lecture 28)


We must always think about problems and/or present them as opportunities.
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Another example of the difference between invention and innovation:

1. invention, i.e. coming up with the original idea:
The accepted inventor of the bank credit card was John Biggins at the Flatbush National Bank of Brooklyn in New York. The year, 1946. Mr Biggins developed the "Charge-It" program in which local merchants who accepted the card would deposit sales slips into the bank and the bank billed the customer.

2. innovation, i.e. scaling/diffusing and monetizing the initial solution:
1958
Bank of America, based in San Francisco, California, issues BankAmericard. With the state of California as its market, the card is an early success, and it is the first “revolving-credit” card with universal merchant acceptance, allowing cardholders the option of paying their account balance in installments with a monthly finance charge applied to the remaining balance.
1976
BankAmericard changes its name to Visa, a simple, memorable name with an international flavor that is pronounced the same way in almost every language.
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The only sensible approach, they [Crick and Koch, 1992] said, was "to press the experimental attack until we are confronted with dilemmas that call for new ways of thinking". Francis Crick, Discoverer of Genetic Code, by Matt Ridley, p.192


in general, forcing one's mind into dilemmas rather than tradeoffs is the best way to a creative solution.

problem situation -> elements and interactions -> problem -> dilemma -> solution -> transformation -> innovation
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writing: evolution from a commerce technology to a religious/literary art. p.87
modern analogies: evolution of the internet from a scientific communication tool to an entertainment medium. similarly, computer --> entertainment machine.

scale: libraries and indexes/catalogues. p. 89.
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The idea was that the seal should bear a clear mark, identifying its owner. Like the clay envelopes studied by Schmandt-Bosserat, seals were instruments of economic control, guarteeing the supervision of proceedings, or confirming that a transaction had tken place. In practice, the Sumerians produced some very imaginative devices with which to identify owners: worshipping at a temple, procession of boats, prisoners efore a ruler, feedin of animals. The were, in effect pictographical signatures. Later, a new type of seal emerged, produced by cutting machines. This clearly suggsts that trade was increasing and that the need for identifying marks was likewise growing. ibid, p. 80.


It's very informative to see how much faith a transition from concrete to abstract requires from its participants. For example, the transition from a physical "clay" representation of animal count to the more abstract inscription on a clay tablet, representing this count, must bear a seal of a trusted person. Otherwise, how one is to know that the writing actually denotes what it writes about. No wonder, first mathematicians were priests. The belief in the abstract must be supported by either strong evidence delivered by science, or strong faith delivered by religion. Money, as an abstract representation of value, must bear the seal of a trustworthy government. God, as an abstract representation of higher powers, has to be supported by miracles of faith.
Also of note would be the emergence of abstract models where the scalability of operation is concerned.
cf: Aristotle's classification work.

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