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У другого в журнале фотографии из Сан Франциско, в том числе и футболка очень успешной рекламной кампании "Stupid".

Туристам положено покупать футболки, а нам грешным положено думать. Вот я и думаю, почему вдруг признание собственной глупости вошло в моду. Ведь не первый раз такое случается. Серия книжек "For Dummies" (для чайников) начала выходить в 1991-м году с "DOS for Dummies." Тогда был разгар рецессии, люди чувствовали, что ничего не понимают в жизни/технологии и открыто это признавали. Вот и сейчас похожая ситуация. Рецессия, куча новых технологий, лавина информации, и что со всем этим делать не понятно.

Тогда из всеобщего непонимания вырос интернет. А сейчас? Чему учат нас футболки Stupid?

p.s. уже второй семестр подряд в классе несколько бразильцев. и не только у меня. откуда вдруг они взялись?
watertank: (Default)
http://dimkin.livejournal.com/437701.html

Real-time problem-solving.

The problem is caused by a context change, i.e. a key system component(condom) is no longer available to assemble a moonshine-making contraption. An additional confusion factor - the component is "borrowed" from another context (sex), therefore its functionality within the system is not immediately clear.

First direction for problem-solving - substitution, e.g. with other expandable devices (rubber glove, balloon, etc.). Result - failure. The devices are not available either.

Second direction - functional substitution from an earlier system, i.e. an alternative implementation for an air valve. The missing component can be made the same way as in the previous iteration of the moonshine-making design.

Third direction - functional substitution with a new component, e.g. a new design for an air valve.

Note the transition from impossible to relatively trivial.
watertank: (Default)
http://mi3ch.livejournal.com/1527630.html

Видно, как увеличение плотности информации заводит в тупик бумажные схемы метро. Вместо того, чтобы давать одному человеку нужную картинку в нужное время, они по-прежнему пытаются выдавать всем все время всю возможную информацию.
watertank: (Default)
вдруг подумал, что псих-влияние кризиса имеет смысл рассматривать не в терминах неизлечимой болезни (Denial-Anger-Bargaining-Depression-Acceptance), a в терминах реакции на стресс (Fight-Flight-Tend-Befriend).

скажем, Горчев предлагает уехать в деревню; Маша - бороться с нелегальной иммиграцией; Обама - увеличением гос помощи; социальные сети - взаимопомощью (http://www.timebanks.org/)

тогда, перевод хайку - это что?

update 3/3/9: might be related to the ratchet effect as mentioned here.
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A post-completion error is a specific form of omission error occurring after some task goal has been accomplished – for example, forgetting to collect your original after photocopying. Using a novel experimental paradigm, this study demonstrates the cognitive robustness of post-completion error: that it occurs not only in routine procedural tasks but also in problem-solving situations. Simon Y. W. Li, et al, 2005.


also see Nudge, by R.H.Thaler and C.R.Sunstein.
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Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan. The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies:

 
over short periods of time, it is very hard, especially in the case of new products, to tell whether a financial manager is generating true excess returns adjusting for risk, or whether the current returns are simply compensation for a risk that has not yet shown itself but that will eventually materialize.

many of the compensation schemes paid for short term risk-adjusted performance. This gave traders an incentive to take risks that were not recognized by the system, so they could generate income that appeared to stem from their superior abilities, even though it was in fact only a market-risk premium. The classic case of such behavior is to write insurance on infrequent events such as defaults, taking on what is termed “tail” risk. If a trader is allowed to boost her bonus by treating the entire insurance premium as income, instead of setting aside a significant fraction as a reserve for an eventual payout, she will have an excessive incentive to engage in this sort of
trade.
... unable to fully control them, because tail risks are by their nature rare, and therefore hard to quantify with precision before they occur.
... in good times ... markets seem to favor a bank capital structure that is heavy on short-term leverage. In bad times, though, the costs of illiquidity seem to be more salient, while risk-averse (and burnt) bankers are unlikely to take on excessive risk.


a combination of psychological and economic incentives is at work here.i have a gut feeling that technology somehow figures into that, but cannot put my finger on it yet.

stimulus tradeoff: fear of private financial institutions to lend vs the government's inefficiency to allocate (and lend) funds.


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New Scientist reports:

Functional MRI scans measure blood flow in the brain. Neuroscientists interpret this as a sign that neurons are firing, usually as someone performs a task or experiences an emotion.

Now, Aniruddha Das from Columbia University in New York and colleagues have shown that blood flow can occur without accompanying neural activity. Das used separate techniques to measure blood flow and neural activity in the visual cortex of two macaques trained to carry out a visual task.

A side note: the first author on the Nature paper is a Russian guy, Yevgeniy Sirotin, but NS attributes the work to Das and colleagues. As usual, Russian scientists in the US don't speak much to reporters.
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Obama's speech )
That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.

These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land -- a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights. ctd )
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Buffet: I don't know the perfect answer. Nobody else does either. I mean, Paul Krugman doesn't know it. And Barack Obama doesn't know it. And (Treasury Secretary-Designate) Tim Geithner doesn't know it. All we know is we have to do something on a very major scale. And if we find out six months down the road that we've-- you know, we've gone a little off course, left or right, we -- that can be adjustment-- we do not want to sit around and debate for six months that the perfect solution is. We wouldn't know it if we found it. The-- the important thing to do is do what we know we need to do now. .. The important thing is, we got going.


and we'll need a lot of luck, too.
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David Brooks in NYT:
we don’t perceive circumstances objectively. We pick out those bits of data that make us feel good because they confirm our prejudices. As Andrew Lo of M.I.T. has demonstrated, if stock traders make a series of apparently good picks, the dopamine released into their brains creates a stupor that causes them to underperceive danger ahead.

Biases abound. People who’ve been told to think of a high number will subsequently bid much more for an item than people who’ve been told to think of a low number. As Jonah Lehrer writes in his forthcoming book, “How We Decide,” there are certain circumstances (often when there are many options) in which gut instincts lead to the best decisions, while there are other circumstances (sometimes when there are a few options) when calm deliberation is best.

Most important, people seek relationships more than money. If behaving a certain way helps a stock trader or a regulator fit in with his crowd, he’s likely to keep doing it without too much rigorous self-examination.

backtrack
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Вдогонку графикам: http://watertank.livejournal.com/1148110.html

Интересно получается. Самый серьезный кризис последнего времени разразился в условиях, когда, благодаря интернету и закону Мора (The Moore's Law), у всех есть, во-первых, доступ к практически любой экономической информации и, во-вторых, лучшие в мировой истории возможности брабaтывать эту информацию.
Похоже, что жизнь опровергает теорию эффективного рынка ( the efficient market hypothesis)
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experience-dependent (games) vs experience-independent ( abstract) learning.

dilemma: a) learning has to be experience-specific, so that the learner get hang of key prototypes and ask/see details that the master might omit in an explanation; b) learning has to be experience-independent, so that the learner is enabled to solve problems within future new experiences.

the faster the [predicted] change in experiences ( environment?), the more abstract the process of learning should be. ( is this true or the opposite is correct? i.e. if things don't change, then abstract learning is a more durable tool?)
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There are many classic examples of inspirations and problem solutions that happened only when the would-be creator gives in to just plain not knowing what to do. Interestingly, one of Freud’s early methodological discoveries that led to much of his theorizing was that it was when patients finally ran out of free associations on a topic and went blank, that was the point when, if they stayed with the blank, insights into their situation could occur.

Rosch, E. (in press). Beginner's mind: Paths to the wisdom that is not learned. In Ferrari, M. & Potworowski, G. (Eds.). Teaching for Wisdom, Hillsdale NJ: Erlbaum.
http://psychology.berkeley.edu/faculty/profiles/erosch2006.pdf


force participants to run out of problems/solutions.
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Over the last couple of months I've been investigating methods to create problems. That's right, not to solve problems, but rather create them. What I've found so far seems to point to a fundamental tension between humans and technology. Humans like to create connections. They tend to feel happier when they are a part of a bigger tribe. There used to be a great quote in [livejournal.com profile] centralasian's journal that emphasized the human integration imperative:
"We must always make connections, ever more connections, since they are not already given. For to connect is to affirm, and to affirm, to connect" - John Rajchman, in "The Deleuze Connections."

It's a wonderful illustration of a simple rule that almost guarantees social success. Modern social networks seem to confirm the approach. Facebook, MySpace, Odnoklassniki, and other relationship brokerage sites are thriving. People find the appeal of staying in touch with one's past and present almost irresistible. Furhtermore, there's a whole body of literature that shows a clear link between one's time with friends and family in determining the daily emotional well-being ( e.g. see gallup findings below).


On the other hand, technology ( in a wider economic sense) favors specialization. In other words, systems that focus on a limited set of functions have been proven to be reliable and cost-efficient. Nevertheless, when we, humans, create and mature technology, we instinctively connect more and more systems together. At a certain point the world enters the state of a "critical mess", when any intended improvement makes things worse, rather than better.

The current economic crisis serves as a good illustration of the human-induced technology over-integration disease. Original financial innovations of the late 1990s (e.g. CDS - credit default swaps) connected and integrated into economic areas beyond their original field of use caused huge damage to the worlds financial system. What started as a specialized and limited risk-management tool eventually became a pervasive risk generator of unknown consequences.
Similarly, computer technology and, especially, the software is prone to over-integration disasters. Microsoft Vista would be the latest example of such a disaster, when thousands of people working for many years created an unwieldy commercial flop.

Even the Internet-based social networking that initially promised people the benefits of a small world of always-connected friends turned into a huge privacy black hole. With a universal user ID your favorite search company and your phone operator know enough to milk your network behavior patterns for the rest of your life.

Thus, one of the best ways to create a great problem is to make as many technology connections as possible. The more, the stronger, the better. Have you made your connection today? ;)
watertank: (Default)
Government statistics show that at birth there are 104 black boys for every 100 girls. Between ages 25 and 45, six more men than women are dead, leaving 98 men for every 100 women. Of these 98 men, nine are in jail, eight are missing and 21 are employed less than half-time. That leaves 60 "promising" black men - men who are alive, employed and not convicted felons. Also consider that promising black men living with a non-black partner outnumber white men with a black partner by three. That leaves only 57 black men for every 100 women in a position to be a permanent partner.
 )
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Интересный пост o спорах у аввы :
Бессмысленность почти всех сетевых споров и дебатов (да и не только сетевых, конечно) - факт, который трудно не заметить. То, зачем люди это делают, остается в итоге неясным - даже несмотря на то, что я и сам иногда так поступаю (т.е. вступаю в заведомо бессмысленный спор или даже начинаю его) - и потом обычно не могу самому себе объяснить, зачем это сделал.
http://avva.livejournal.com/1951877.html


Из комментариев видно, что все знают, что спорить бессмысленно. Больше того, все знают, что не знают, почему они это делают. Дальше, все знают, что это старая проблема. Но почему-то никому не приходит в голову, что именно такими проблемами занимается наука психология. Люди из "компьютерно-программистской среды" даже не догадываются, насколько хорошо изучены (теоретически и экспериментально) вопросы persuasion. То есть, в принципе нет понятия о принадлежности класса задач определенной области знания. Откуда это идет? От недостатка образования, или от веры в коллективный сетевой разум?
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Народ, с которым я недавно занимался проблемой диабета-2, прислал карту распространения болезни по территории штатов. Картинка выглядит, как эпидемия инфекционной болезни, хотя диабет таковой ни в коем случае не является. Тогда возникает, на первый взгляд, странный вопрос: Инфекцией чего вызывается диабет-2?

Одна из идей - "инфекция" плохого образа жизни, т.е. слишком много junk food и слишком мало exercise. Интересно было бы сделать более детальную карту заболевания и обозначить на ней источники жратвы и спортивные клубы. А также количество часов рекламы первых и вторых. Может, получится что-то вроде карты Лондона ( холера и источники воды), составленной доктором John Snow в сентябре 1854 года. Найти бы еще данные по объемам продаж в зависимости от zip code...

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Black Swans, Mediocristan, Extremistan, and why "future is not what it used to be."




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Intuitive judgments have received extensive attention and there is mounting evidence that these judgments can be made extremely quickly, particularly when they involve inferring social information from a face. For example, affective judgments, such as determining whether or not you like somebody based on their photograph, can be made as quickly as 160 ms. These rapid judgments can also be made when the stimuli have been barely processed within conscious awareness. People are able to infer traits, such as competence or trustworthiness, from faces they have seen for as little as 100 ms. Despite their rapidity, these trait inference judgments have been demonstrated to predict important decisions, such as voter choices in U.S. congressional elections.

...in another experiment, the authors found that students were happier with choices made intuitively than when these were made analytically.*

Alan G. Sanfey, Luke J. Chang (2008) Multiple Systems in Decision Making
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1128 (1) , 53–62 doi:10.1196/annals.1399.007


* Thinking too much: Introspection can reduce the quality of preferences and decisions.
Wilson, Timothy D.; Schooler, Jonathan W. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 1991 Feb Vol 60(2) 181-192
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Because the overall capacity for mental effort is limited, effortful processes tend to disrupt each other, whereas effortless processes neither cause nor suffer much interference when combined with other tasks. For example, a driver's ability to conduct a conversation is a sensitive indicator of the amount of attention currently demanded by the driving task. Dual tasks have been used in hundreds of psychological experiments to measure the attentional demands of different mental activities (for a review, see Harold E. Pashler, 1998). Studies using the dual-task method suggest that the self-monitoring function belongs with the effortful operations of System 2. People who are occupied by a demanding mental activity (e.g., attempting to hold in mind several digits) are much more likely to respond to another task by blurting out whatever comes to mind (Gilbert, 1989).


Frederick (2003, personal communication) has used simple puzzles to study cognitive self-monitoring, as in the following example: "A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?" Almost everyone reports an initial tendency to answer "10 cents" because the sum $1.10 separates naturally into $1 and 10 cents, and 10 cents is about the right magnitude. Frederick found that many intelligent people yield to this immediate impulse: 50 percent (47/93) of a group of Princeton students and 56 percent (164/293) of students at the University of Michigan gave the wrong answer. Clearly, these respondents offered their response without first checking it. The surprisingly high rate of errors in this easy problem illustrates how lightly the output of effortless associative thinking is monitored: people are not accustomed to thinking hard, and are often content to trust a plausible judgment that quickly comes to mind.
Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics[dagger] Daniel Kahneman. The American Economic Review. Nashville: Dec 2003. Vol. 93, Iss. 5; pg. 1449

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