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Rules of Forecasting
Jun. 16th, 2008 01:21 pmReflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster’s job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the “cone of uncertainty” on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future— next decade has more surprises in store than next week.)
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Rule: Change is never linear. Our expectations are linear, but new technologies come in “S” curves, so we routinely overestimate short-term change and underestimate long-term change. “Never mistake a clear view for a short distance.”
http://blog.longnow.org/2008/01/14/paul-saffo-embracing-uncertainty-the-secret-to-effective-forecasting/
